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January 12, 2017     The Perkins Journal
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January 12, 2017

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& Ra THE JOURNAL, Thursday, January 12, 2017. A7 New year bringing uncertainty, potential volatility to beef By Donald Stotts effects of any changes may to move cattle aggressively Although analysts project be positive, negative or, for some months now, espe- cattle prices to be lower more likely, some combina- cially since September," than 2016 for year-over-year tion of both," Peel said. said Trent Milacek, OSU averages, several factors are In addition to U.S. mac- Cooperative Extension agri- poised to have a significant roeconomic uncertainty, cultural economist for the effect on 2017 cattle and beef global market uncertainty state's Northwest District. markets and may change will likely continue in the In the three months before current price expectations, coming year as well. The December, feedlot market- "Uncertainty and volatility Brexit vote last summer has ings exceeded placements from a variety of sources will been followed by several by 13.1 percent, resulting continue to hover ominously additional populist political in a net feedlot outflow of over cattle and beef markets moves in Europe that have 685,000 head and leading to in 2017, though most ana- added to global economic the smaller year-over-year lysts currently project cattle anxiety, feedlot inventories at the end prices in 2017 to average "Separate but related to of 2016. close to fourth quarter 2016 macroeconomic uncertainty, "This helped contribute to levels," said Derrell Peel, volatility in Live and Feeder greater-than-expected cattle Oklahoma State University cattle futures has signifi- slaughter and beef produc- Cooperative Extension live- cantly reduced the effective- tion numbers in the last half stock marketing specialist, ness of these tools for price of 2016"' Milacek said."Fur- Current U.S. macroeco- discover), and risk manage- thermore, it suggests feedlot nomicconditions are encour- ment, and contributed to operators have pulled cattle aging; the stock market fin- additional cash market vola- ahead, setting up relatively ished strong and unemploy- tility,which appearslikely to tighter first quarter 2017 ment was low at the end of continue in 2017"' Peel said. feedlot supplies, particularly 2016. However, the nation's if winter weather should economy is gearing up for Beef Production impact feedlot production in higher interest rates and An additional 4 percent of any significant way." potentially higher inflation beef production is expected However, lVlilacek po'mted in 2017. in 2017 in addition to the out that does not change the "Uncertainty about possible 6.1 percent year-over-year fact feeder supplies will be changes by the incoming increase in 2016. Cattle larger in 2017 and more Trump administration is slaughter exceeded expec- cattle must move through negatively affecting markets tations throughout 2016. feedlots in the months ahead. now but the actual economic "Feedtots have continued Herd expansion through By Payne County Extension Educators Nathan Anderson, Agriculture Educator Dea Rash, FCS Educator Keith Reed, Horticulture Educator Summer Leister, 4-H Educator Suzette Barta, Rural Development http://oces.okstate.edu/payne The 3 stages of parturition complete cervical dilation As the spring calving is important before forced season approaches, an extraction ("pulling") ofthe increased understanding calf is attempted. of the parturition process Stage 2: The second stage is'helpful. The more we of parturition is defined as understand about the phys- the delivery of the newborn. iology of the process, the It begins with the entrance ,-ore likely we are to make of the membranes and fetus sound decisions about pro- into the pelvic canal and ends viding assistance. Parturi- with the completed birth of tionor"calving"isgenerally the calf. So the second considered to occur in three stage is the one in which stages, we really are interested. Stage l: The first stage of This is where we find all of parturition is dilation of the the action. Clinically, and cervix. The normal cervix is from a practical aspect we tightly closed right up until would define the beginning the cervical plug is corn- of stage 2 as the appearance pletely dissolved. In stage of membranes or water bag 1, cervical dilation begins at the vulva. The traditional some 2 to 24 hours before texts,factsheets,magazines, the completion of partu- and other publications that rition (2 to 6 hours would we read state that stage 2 be most common). During in cattle lasts from 2 to 5 this time the "progesterone hours. As was illustrated block" is no longer present in last week's newsletter, and the uterine muscles are data from Oklahoma State becoming more sensitive to University and the USDA all factors that increase the experiment station at Miles rate and strength ofcontrac- City, Montana, would indi- tions. At the beginning, the cute that stage two is MUCH contractile forces primarily shorter. In these studies, influence the relaxation of assistance was given if stage the cervix but uterine mus- two progressed more than cular activity is still rather two hours after the appear- quiet. Stage l is likely to go ance of water bag at the completely unnoticed, but vulva. The interesting thing there may be some behav- about the data was that the ioral differences such as heifers calving unassisted, isolation or discomfort. At did so in about one hour after the end of stage one, there the initiation of stage two, may be come behavioral and mature cows calved changes such as elevation within an average of 22 of the tail, switching of the minutes of the initiation of tail and increased mucous stage two. Those that took discharge. Also relaxation longer needed assistance. (softening) of the pelvic These and other data would ligaments near the pinbones indicate that normal stage may become visually: evi- two of parturition would be dent, giving a "sunken" redefined as approximately appearance on each side of 60 minutes for heifers and the tailhead. Checking for 30 minutes for adult cows. In heifers, not only is the pelvic opening smaller, but also the soft tissue has never been expanded. Older cows have had deliveries before and birth should go quite rapidly unless there is some abnormality such as a very large calf, backwards calf, leg back or twins. If the cow or heifer is making good progress with each strain, allow her to continue on her own. Know your limitations. Seek professional veterinary help soon if you encounter a problem that cannot be solved easily in minutes. Stage 3: The third stage of parturition is the shedding of the placenta or fetal mem- branes. In cattle this nor- mally occurs in less than 8 to12 hours. The membranes are considered retained if after 12 hours they have not been shed. Years ago it was considered necessary to remove the membranes by manually "unbuttoning" the attachments. Research has shown that manual removal can be detrimental to uterine health and future concep- tion rates. Administration of antibiotics usually will guard against infection and the placenta will slough out in 4 to 7 days. Contact your veterinarian for the proper management of retained placenta. An important ingredient for your calving season preparation is the Oklahoma State University Extension Circular E- 1006: Calving Time Management for Beef Cows and Heifers. Cow calf producers will want to download this free circular and read it before the first calf is born this spring. 2016 ensures increased beef "Cow-caif producers will duction, retail beef prices production through 2018. have the difficult task of maintained strong ratim to "Thecattleandbeefmarket securing a profit in their pork and poultry but were supply challenges will con- herds as we move into adjusting downwanl slowly. tinue highlighting the need 2017,"Milaceksaid."Lower In November, The All for strong domestic and prices have encouraged pro- Fresh beef-to-pork retail international beef demand ducers to bring more cows price ratio was 1 down to moderate larger beef pro- and heifers to slaughter, from the peak of 1.65 in lime duction in 2017"' he said. which could very well slow 2015. This ratio averaged expansion into 2017." 1.33 in the five years from International Beef Trade Additionally, this has 2009 through 2013 md Im Peel agrees with Milacek added to the beef supply in averaged 1 _5 since Janmmj that intemational trade in beef the near term. Heifer slaugh- 2014. and cattle will be a critical ter in November totaled The All Fresh beef-to- component of price expecta- 106,000 head more than the broiler retail price ratio was tions for 2017. Expectations same time in 2015. Simi- 2.93 in November, (low, for continued growth in beef larly, cow slaughter posted fromthepeakof3.13inMay exports- simultaneous with year-over-year increases of 2015. The 2009 tlumlgh decreasedbeefimports-will as well. This could result 2013 average of this ratio significantly offset a portion in fewer breeding females was 2.4 but has averaged of increased beef production entering the cow herd. 2.98 since January 2014. in 2017. "Hog supply and pork pin- "One of the bigger uncer- Feed and Drought duction challenges relative tainties surrounding the Feedlots should continue to beef are not over going Tromp administration is the to enjoy low cost of gain into 2017" Peel said. "111¢ d'trectimpactoncurrentlrade as record 2016 grain crops December 1 inventory of patterns as well as potential keep grain supplies plentiful all hogs was 103.7 lament future beef and cattle trade through the current grain of one year ago, breeding policies," Peel said. "The marketing year. Dry con- hogs were 101.5 percent of dollar is expected to continue ditions across much of the last year and market Imp strong and will continue to southern part of the couna'y were 104percentofomyes¢ pose a headwind to faster are consistent with La Nifia ago. All categories were and stronger improvement in conditions and could be above pre-report estimates cattle and beef trade." an issue for 2017 forage and are likely to provoke a Milacek added the strength and crop production if cur- bearish market reaction." of the U.S. dollar has made rent conditions persist into In addition, estimates practically every Ameri- spring, of the September through can-produced commodity As of the December 27, November pig crop as well more expensive on the world 2016 Oklahoma Drought as the farrowing intentiom market. Monitor, 94.37 percent of through May of 2017 wcm "The price of grains in the state was considered to all above expectations. This the United States has had to be in a D0 to D4 drought. Of may posh 2017 pork preduc- adjust downward to compen- that total, 45.73 percent was tion estimates even higher sate, which has been of great at a D2 to D4 drought rating, and will add to the supply benefit to cattle feeders," he "This is having a detrimen- pressures in all meat nmrkets said. "We continue to see tal effect on winter pastures in the coming months. strong basis figures for grain that could negatively affect sold near feedlots, which wheat pasture stocker gains;' MidldleMeals encourages domestic use. Milacek said. "Another con- "There arc indications This not only helps reduce cern is the potential for con- that retail beef demand has the large grain supplies but tinued drought to reduce the shittedsomewhatbacktolbe also allows for lower cost of available forage at spring middle meats alter several gain in the feedlot." green-up. Ultimately, this years of relatively stron- could cause a reduction in ger end meats" Peel aid. Beef Demand and Total stocking capacity of our "End meats have carried Meat Suppfies summer pastures?' a relatively higher perctmt Most industry analysts According to the Live- of carcass value since expect increased beef pro- stock Marketing Informa- recession that began in2008. duction to combine with tion Center, continued dry Generally speaking, mixed increased pork and poultry weather has caused pasture strength in steak demand production for another record conditions in the Southern was countered by weak total meat supply in 2017. Plains states to register 15 processing beef markets "Domestic per capita meat percent in poor to very poor and lower end meat values consumption is not expected condition. Comparatively, in 2016." to be a record, depending southeastern U.S. pasture As of mid-December, critically on continued conditions are now at 33.67 rib primal values were exports of all meats, but it is percent in the poor to very nearly 3 percent higher than expected to increase another poor category, the same time last year, 1 _5 percent year over year in "We may start to see more mirroring higher Ribeye 2017, on top of the 1.4 per- cattle moving north and wholesale valnes. However, cent year-over-year increase west if pasture conditions loin primal value came iu in 2016," Peel said. continue to deteriorate in the approximately 12 percent Retail beef prices are pro- Southeast," Milacek said. lower year over year with jected to continue adjusting Strip Loin and Short Loin downward in 2017, which Late 2016 Affecting Early values down double digit is critical to help the market 2017 percentages and Tenderloin absorb additional beef in the Boxed beef prices headed values about equal to ome face of large total meat sup- into the last half of Decem- year before. plies. Retailers and packers ber at the highest levels "The lower loin cut values have secured a larger share since early September, with representedacontinuafionof of the retail dollar since the the Choice boxed beef price an apparent downward trend break in cattle prices in 2015. having risen 6.7 percent in relative loin values in the "The Choice steer value as from the late October low, pastdeeade;' Peel sald.'Hle a percent of the retail beef registering only bottom line is domestic beef value peaked in late 20 14 at 2.3 percent below year-ago demand in 20 17 will depelM approximately 60 percent," levels, on macrocconomi¢ factors Milacek said. "Since that "This was quite impres- such as income growth aad time,the producer's share of sive given that beef pro- unemployment as well as th¢ the retail, dollar has fallen to duction continued stronger impact of larger total meat 42 percent. As competition than expected in the fourth supplies, with potentially from other meats begins to quarter," Peel said. "As significant effects coming weigh on beef prices, expect of mid-December, Choice from beef export and impoN to see the live-to-retail beef boxed beef prices averaged flows as well." price spread narrow once 12.9 percent down from Oklahoma nationally ranks again." year-earlier levels while fifth in cattle production, The average spread from beef production increased eighthin hog pmductionand 2010 to 2014 was $1,093 5.7 percent for2016." 10th in poultry production, per 1,000 pounds in Novem- Despite larger total meat according to National Agri- ber. In 2016 the spread was supplies and a particularly cultural Statistics Servkae $1,503 per 1,000 pounds, strong jump in beef pro- data. Cedar Ridge Vet Perkins, OK Large Animal Working Fmdliltm • Hyclrmlk Clmle Large Aninud AJ. • Ranch Performance Horse Medicine • Faluine Mobile Vet Serviees Justen D. Carroll, DVM Alison Arms, RVI' 580-216-7393 for appoinlmmt I